We help the world growing since we created.

Kuya kwenzeka ntoni kwimarike yentsimbi yaseTshayina phantsi kokunyuka kwamaxabiso ehlabathi?

Ukunyuka kwamaxabiso ehlabathi kwangoku kuphezulu, kwaye kunzima ukuphelisa ngexesha elifutshane, eliya kuba yindawo enkulu yangaphandle ejongene nemarike yensimbi yaseChina kwixesha elizayo.Ngelixa ukuhla kwamandla emali okuqatha kuya kuthomalalisa imfuno yentsimbi yehlabathi, kuya kudala amathuba abalulekileyo kwimarike yentsimbi yaseTshayina. Okokuqala, ukunyuka kwamaxabiso ezinto eziphakamileyo kwihlabathi kuya kuba yeyona meko inkulu yoqoqosho lwangaphandle ejongene nemarike yentsimbi yase China kwixesha elizayo.
Imeko yexabiso lentengo yehlabathi imbi kakhulu.Ngokweenkcukacha ezikhutshwe yiBhanki yeHlabathi kunye namanye amaziko kunye nemibutho, izinga lokunyuka kwamaxabiso kwihlabathi lilindeleke ukuba libe malunga ne-8% ngo-2022, phantse ipesenti ezi-4 zamanqaku aphezulu kunonyaka ophelileyo.Ngo-2022, ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kumazwe aphuhlileyo kwakukufutshane ne-7%, elona liphezulu ukususela ngo-1982. Ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kwiimarike ezikhulayo kunokubetha i-10 pesenti, elona liphezulu ukususela ngo-2008. ibe mandundu ngenxa yezinto ezininzi.Kungekudala, uPowell, usihlalo we-Federal Reserve, kunye noLagarde, umongameli we-European Central Bank, wavuma ukuba ixesha elitsha lokunyuka kwamaxabiso liyeza, kwaye alinakubuyela kwimeko ephantsi yokunyuka kwamaxabiso.Kunokubonwa ukuba ukunyuka kwamaxabiso aphezulu ehlabathi kuya kuba yeyona ndawo inkulu yoqoqosho lwangaphandle ejongene nemarike yentsimbi yase China kwixesha elizayo.
Okwesibini, ukunyuka kwamaxabiso okunzulu kwehlabathi, kuya kwenza buthathaka imfuno yentsimbi epheleleyo
Ukunyuka kwamaxabiso ehlabathi ngokunyukayo kunyanzelekile ukuba kube nempembelelo enkulu kuhlumo loqoqosho lwehlabathi, nto leyo ebangela ukwanda komngcipheko wokudodobala koqoqosho lwehlabathi.IBhanki yeHlabathi kunye namanye amaziko kunye nemibutho iqikelele ukuba izinga lokukhula koqoqosho lwehlabathi ngowama-2022 liza kuba sisi-2.9 ekhulwini kuphela, ipesenti ezi-2.8 libe ngaphantsi kunesi-5.7 ekhulwini sonyaka ophelileyo.Izinga lokukhula kwamazwe aphuhlileyo lehle ngepesenti ye-1.2 yamanqaku kunye nelo loqoqosho olusahlumayo lwehle nge-3.5 yeepesenti.Ayisiyiyo loo nto kuphela, ukukhula kwehlabathi kulindeleke ukuba kwehla kwiminyaka ezayo, kunye noqoqosho lwase-US lwehla ukuya kwi-2.5% ngo-2022 (ukusuka kwi-5.7% ngo-2021), i-1.2% ngo-2023, kwaye mhlawumbi ingaphantsi kwe-1% ngo-2024.
Uhlumo loqoqosho lwehlabathi lwehle kakhulu, kwaye kusenokubakho ukudodobala koqoqosho, nto leyo eyenze buthathaka imfuno yentsimbi xa iyonke.Akunjalo kuphela, amaxabiso ayaqhubeka nokunyuka, kodwa kwakhona enze ingeniso yelizwe iyancipha, inqande imfuno yabo yabathengi.Kule meko, ukuthunyelwa kwentsimbi yaseChina, ngakumbi ukuthunyelwa ngaphandle ngokuthe ngqo kwentsimbi kubalwa uninzi lwezinto ezithunyelwa ngaphandle ziya kuchaphazeleka.
Kwangaxeshanye, ukuwohloka kokusingqongileyo kwemfuno yangaphandle, kuya kuvuselela inqanaba lokuthatha izigqibo zaseTshayina kwimizamo yohlengahlengiso lwe-countertrend, ukwandisa ngakumbi imfuno yasekhaya, ukuqinisekisa ukukhula kweemfuno ezipheleleyo kwindawo efanelekileyo, ukwenzela ukuba imfuno yentsimbi yaseChina iya kuba nako. kuxhomekeke ngakumbi kwimfuno yasekhaya, imfuno epheleleyo yensimbi iya kuba yinto ecacileyo.
Okwesithathu, imeko yexabiso lentengo yehlabathi jikelele, iya kuvelisa amathuba emarike yentsimbi yaseTshayina
Kufuneka kwakhona icaciswe into yokuba imeko yexabiso lentengo yehlabathi jikelele, kwimfuno yentsimbi yeChina iyonke, ayizizo zonke izinto ezingalunganga, kukwakho namathuba emarike.Kuhlalutyo lokuqala, kukho ubuncinane amathuba amabini.
Okokuqala, i-US inokuthi icuthe amaxabiso okungenisa impahla eTshayina.Undoqo wokunyuka kwamaxabiso ehlabathi namhlanje yiMelika.Ukunyuka kwamaxabiso omthengi kuthi ngokungalindelekanga kwakhawuleza ukuya kwi-40-year high ye-8.6 pesenti ngoMeyi.Iingcali zezoqoqosho zilumkisa ukuba ukunyuka kwamaxabiso e-US kuya kunyuka ngakumbi, mhlawumbi ukuya kwi-9 pesenti.Umba obalulekileyo emva kwexabiso eliphezulu eliqhubekayo e-US lihlala kwixesha elichasene nehlabathi likarhulumente wase-US, owabeka inani elikhulu leerhafu kwiimpahla zaseTshayina, ukunyusa iindleko zokungenisa.Ukuza kuthi ga ngoku, ulawulo lwe-Biden okwangoku lusebenza ukulungisa imirhumo yecandelo lama-301 kwimpahla yaseTshayina, kunye neenkqubo zokukhulula ezo rhafu kwiimveliso ezithile, ngeenzame zokususa uxinzelelo olunyukayo kumaxabiso.Lo ngumqobo ongenakuthintelwa we-US ukulawula ukunyuka kwamaxabiso.Ukuba ezinye iirhafu zokuthumela ngaphandle eziya e-US zincitshisiwe, kuya kuba luncedo ngokwendalo ukuthunyelwa ngaphandle kwentsimbi yaseTshayina, ingakumbi ukuthunyelwa ngaphandle kwentsimbi engathanga ngqo.
Okwesibini, umphumo wokutshintshwa kwempahla yaseTshayina yomeleziwe.Ehlabathini namhlanje, iimpahla eziphantsi kunye nezikumgangatho ophezulu zivela e-China, kwelinye icala, ngenxa yokuba imeko ye-bhubhane e-China iphuculwe kakhulu, kwaye i-chain chain chain ithembekile ngakumbi.Kwelinye icala, amakhonkco obonelelo kwiindawo ezininzi zehlabathi achaphazeleke kakhulu kukuqhambuka kunye nemfazwe phakathi kweRussia neUkraine.Ukunqongophala kokubonelela kukwangumba ophambili ochaphazela ukunyuka kwamaxabiso, okomeleza ngakumbi isiphumo sokutshintshwa kwempahla yaseTshayina kwimarike yamazwe ngamazwe, ekulungele ngakumbi ukusebenza kweefektri zehlabathi zaseTshayina.Yiyo loo nto ukuthunyelwa kwempahla eChina kumazwe angaphandle, kubandakanywa nokuthunyelwa kwentsimbi kumazwe angaphandle ngokungangqalanga, kuhleli ukomelela nangona imeko yangaphandle iye iba mandundu kulo nyaka.Umzekelo, ngoMeyi kulo nyaka, ixabiso lilonke lokungenisa nokuthumela ngaphandle kweTshayina linyuke nge-9.6% unyaka nonyaka kunye ne-9.2% inyanga nenyanga ngokulandelelanayo.Ngokukodwa, ukungeniswa nokuthunyelwa ngaphandle kwengingqi yeDelta yoMlambo iYangtze kunyuke phantse nge-20% inyanga nenyanga xa kuthelekiswa no-Epreli, kwaye ukungenisa nokuthumela ngaphandle kwe-Shanghai kunye neminye imimandla kubuyiselwe kakhulu.Ekuthunyelweni kwempahla kumazwe angaphandle, ixabiso leemveliso zoomatshini nezombane ezithunyelwa kumazwe angaphandle linyuke nge-7% unyaka nonyaka kwiinyanga ezintlanu zokuqala zalo nyaka, libalelwa kuma-57.2% exabiso lilonke lexabiso lokuthumela ngaphandle.Ukuthunyelwa kweemoto kumazwe angaphandle kuphelele kwi-119.05 yeebhiliyoni zeeyuan, ukuya kuma-57.6%.Ukongeza, ngokweenkcukacha-manani, kwiinyanga ezintlanu zokuqala zentengiso ye-excavator yelizwe yehla nge-39.1% ngonyaka, kodwa umthamo wokuthumela ngaphandle unyuke nge-75.7% ngonyaka.Zonke ezi zinto zibonisa ukuba ukuthunyelwa kwentsimbi engathanga ngqo kweTshayina kuyaqhubeka ukomelela, kungcono kakhulu kunokuba bekulindelwe, njengoko imfuno yehlabathi yokuthengwa kweChina inyuka phantsi koxinzelelo lokunyuka kwamaxabiso ehlabathi.Kulindeleke ukuba njengoko umgangatho wamaxabiso ehlabathi uhleli uphezulu okanye unyuke ngakumbi, ukuxhomekeka kwawo onke amazwe ehlabathi, ngakumbi amazwe aseYurophu nawaseMelika, kwiimpahla zaseTshayina eziquka oomatshini kunye neemveliso zombane kuya kuqina.Oku kuya kwenza ukuba ukuthunyelwa kwentsimbi yaseTshayina kumazwe angaphandle, ngakumbi ukuthunyelwa kwayo kumazwe angaphandle ngokungangqalanga, kube nokuqina kakhulu, nangakumbi ipateni eyomeleleyo.


Ixesha lokuposa: Jul-14-2022